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Direction: Americans have decided acid on the state of the economy, with the idea that the country into a recession now divided by 6 out of 10 of them, according to the New York Times / CBS News Poll.

The Americans have decided acid on the state of the economy, with the idea that the country into a recession now divided by 6 out of 10 of them, according to the New York Times / CBS News Poll.

This negative mood developing for several months, various surveys show, but it has risen sharply since Iraqi tanks rolled in Kuwait three weeks ago, on the path of persistence and a spate of bad economic news: higher oil prices, stocks and the escalation of falling interest rates.

More than 55 percent of the population, said the economy is growing worse, according to the Times / CBS News Poll. The last time the survey was so great that some of Americans dour on the economy was in the years 1981 and 1982, when the country fell into the worst recession since World War II.

The outlook for the economy

More than 40 percent of respondents in the ongoing investigation said the economy remain the same. Only 4 percent said she thought it was better.

The survey was conducted in telephone interviews with 1,422 Americans from August 16 to August 19 The margin of sampling error was plus or minus three percentage points.

The behaviour of the economy may have a strong influence on both the reality of economic and political conditions.

On the political front, a weak economy in general anger sorts for the party controlled the White House, even if for the moment the applause of his relations with foreign policy, President Bush there are problems with homeland and perhaps even before the protection of his party, which may otherwise defections inspired by bad economic periods.

Then there’s the effect that the official policy of economic reality.

Various definitions of decline

Studies generally define a recession of two consecutive quarters of decline, national production. Although there is not even a single quarter, the decline in production in years, many economists say that the definition are not entirely varieties difficult times, such as rolling regional recessions that can develop at the bottom of the economic modern.

In any case, consumers’ pessimism on the economy for fear of purchases - particularly high prices for items such as houses, cars and major appliances - and can thus help to produce or deepen the recession The Americans are very confident, is already here. The federal government has, indeed, uses consumer confidence, measured in a monthly report from the University of Michigan, through its index of leading economic indicators, which is designed for the future Presage movement in the economy .

T. Richard Curtin, directs the Michigan survey said it was a little sharp decline in consumer confidence, immediately after the invasion of Iraq Kuwait. ”The mood of consumers was quite dark,”he said. It has since recovered somewhat, but still down on the entire month of August, he said.

In the latest New York Times / CBS News survey on the economic parameters are very different from region to region, as different conditions. Nearly two-thirds of respondents in the north-east, where economic conditions were real poorest, said the economy was bad to worse, while only about half of those in the South and the Middle Unis said. More than 6 in 10 Westerners have seen the deterioration of economic conditions.

Rise in pessimism

But pessimism has increased nationwide in August, and more than half of respondents in all four regions now say that the country into a recession.

The tremor, that Iraq is American Economic confidence is clearly visible in a series of polls before and after August 2, the day of the invasion.

In a poll of Wall Street Journal and NBC News in May that 30 percent of respondents said they thought it would be a recession this year, and 57 percent said no. In a poll by CBS News six days after the invasion, 49 percent of Americans said they believed it was the country into a recession, and 42 percent said no. In a poll of the “New York Times,” eight days after the invasion, 52 percent said the country was in a recession, while 35 percent said no. In the recent poll, 61 percent said, the country was in a recession, and 32 percent said no.

Mr. Curtin, and other analysts said that a great save for a short period was unusual and was almost always in conjunction with major events. For example, consumer confidence has adopted a strong film after the stock market crash of 1987. The magnitude of the impact that these events have on the purchase price of consumers, and thus on the economy depends heavily on not knowing if the parameters to continue or begin to deteriorate, “said Curtin.